Wednesday’s violence has caused lawmakers, cabinet members, and friends alike to turn on President Trump. Even he seems to know that inciting mob violence in the U.S. Capitol took things too far, since he seems to be toning down rhetoric instead of what he normally does — i.e. attack those who cross him, calling them out as traitors or part of the conspiratorial (and fake) deep state.
Calls to impeach the president or remove him via the 25th Amendment have been lobbied from both sides of the aisle, and while it seems unlikely that Pence would remove the president on his own, it does seem inevitable that Pelosi and the rest of the House Democrats will move to impeach (again) as soon as next week. This won’t likely result in his removal from the presidency only days before it is set to end anyway, but it could result in Trump being barred from ever seeking office again.
Another potential scenario is Trump’s resignation (an event already predicted by many) so that Pence can pardon Trump from federal prosecution — a circumstance looking all the more likely now that authorities are investigating Trump as well as the hundreds who broke into the U.S. Capitol building, which had not been breached in over two centuries.
What could Trump be prosecuted for? The list is long. Speculation seems irrelevant for now, as many in power will likely say that “moving on” is more important. President Biden has already made his feelings as a member of this bandwagon clear. And that makes perfect sense, because agitating Trump’s very loyal (and increasingly radical) fanbase wouldn’t be a strategically pragmatic first move for the President-Elect.
It’s far more likely that Trump will be sought by various state authorities for crimes such as tax evasion, crimes for which he cannot be pardoned by a sitting president — himself or someone else — who only has the power to pardon or commute crimes that are federal in nature.